The largest portal Newsmax published my new article “Global Interdependence Means No One Wins a Trade War“
The storm around the rapid deterioration of Turkey’s economy sent shock waves in financial markets — globally.
In light of the worsening relations between Turkey and the U.S., and as a result of President Trump’s declaration of double caps on steel and aluminum, the European banking and financial system could be dragged into an old/new debt crisis.
We are witnessing a world war, albeit different from what we have known in the past.
It’s the modern technological and financial version of warfare.
Numerous fronts indicate a dramatic and global collapse of the free international trade market. The U.S., Europe, China, India, Russia, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Turkey, Iran, Brazil, and other countries are all in the midst of economic battles.
Mutual sanctions, currency attacks, and unprecedented threats are flying acorss international time zones. Leaders are fighting for their dignity — and thrones.
Today we don’t need atomic bombs to cause mass destruction.
Cutting off international ties could cause entire populations to starve for food. From day to day, we find it hard to envision a peaceful future in a single country, without taking all others into account. In today’s world, the links and dependencies between countries and economies cannot be untangled without a great deal of conflict.
The international trade market, which has been a free market for decades, is now practically being shut down. Here is the forecast: China will not be able to continue using its large cash reserves to buy real estate or giant companies around the world, while the technological revolution devalues China’s cheap production lines, which for decades have always been its main economic advantage.
As the Chinese expansion in world trade meets a roadblock, the potential benefits will be distributed among other powers such as the U.S., Europe, Brazil, and others.
Russia, however, finds itself in a pickle, facing stronger and healthier trade partners with a weakened currency that stifles its economy. And the U.S., in complete contrast to the passive policy that characterized it in recent years, is now determined to take the lead.
Regarding global forecasts, the two countries that appear to have the ability to lead in the global trade war are the U.S. and Israel. Both countries have the distinct technological advantage, entrepreneurship, ingenuity, and innovation necessary to generate solid economic results.
The battle no longer plays out on mechanical production lines.
Today, minds own the battlefield.
The first act of this war should reach its peak in October of this year.
Turkey’s huge loan repayments are nearing insolvency. Then, the Turkish Republic will be forced to either take dramatic measures such as debt relief or take very expensive loans from countries and financial institutions.
Could Trump announce victory? Will Israel prosper as a result?
Will world markets spiral into another economic crisis?
In a globally interdependent world, a single winner does not exist. Countries and economies are tied together in an integrated system, one they cannot disengage from. This interdependence — which most players still seem to ignore — means that a zero-sum game in which the winner takes all cannot happen.
Ultimately, we will realize that we can all win — or lose — together.
A third option is not on the table.