“Global Trade Is Likely To Remain Sluggish For Many Years”

Dr. Michael LaitmanIn the News (from Zawya): “Global trade is likely to remain sluggish for many years, and emerging economies that have depended on exports to fuel their transformation will have to find new sources of growth, says a UN report.” (Source: inagist)

“’Developing and transition economies are likely to face sluggish import demand for their goods as a result of a protracted period of slow growth in developed countries,’ said The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) in a report published September 12. ‘Thus, for policymakers in the former set of countries, reverting to the pre-crisis policy stance with its emphasis on export-oriented growth is not an option.’

“The report suggests that exports from developing and transition economies to developed economies before the global recession seemed to justify the adoption of an export-oriented growth model.

“But the expansion of the world economy, though favorable for many developing countries, was built on unsustainable global demand and financing patterns. Thus, reverting to pre-crisis growth strategies cannot be an option. Rather, in order to adjust to what now appears to be a structural shift in the world economy, many developing and transition economies are obliged to review their development strategies that have been overly dependent on exports for growth. …

“The way the crisis has affected global trade patterns also calls into question the future value of the export-oriented growth model that fuelled the emergence of China and other developing world champions over the past three decades.”

My Comment: Before us there is not a long-term decline, which is then replaced by a rise. It is necessary to find a solution to this progressive fall. But to find it, you first need to make the correct diagnosis, to discover the true cause of our deteriorating condition. Talking about the nature of the periods of crisis and repeating that the crisis is already passing is naive. They did not even want to admit it at all for many years, not until 2008. But this does not solve the problem itself.

It is proposed to create a permanent international unified forum that will accept all the explanations, sort, and publish them. Thus we will attract people’s attention to our common problem. This alone would be its partial solution, because it would unite people. Further, selecting the proposed solutions, addressing their respective authors, asking them to explain (with all this to be shown in the media, our TV, and website). And thus gradually we could select the options to work out the method of Integral Education (IE).

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