Children And The Elderly Slow Down Global Economic Growth

Dr. Michael LaitmanIn the News (from nakedcapitalism): “Over the past few years, I have written a series of articles arguing that the ageing of populations across the globe would have major adverse implications for consumption spending, asset values, and government revenues and taxation.

“I have also argued that the impacts from ageing would likely be most acute in Western Nations, although some developing countries, most notably China, would also be negatively affected.

“The problem stems primarily from the coming end of the demographic ‘sweet spot. ’That is, where there is a high proportion of working age people supporting only a small pool of dependents. Such an advantageous age structure has affected almost all of the world’s major economies and produced a population structure optimal to economic growth – that is, where the largest segments of the population were neither young nor old, but in the middle (i.e. working age). …

“The danger is not in the slower growth. Slow growth is not a bad thing. It’s still growth. The danger is in an expectations gap, in which we consider slower growth unacceptable….

“The high growth rates experienced in the decades leading-up to the global financial crisis were an anomaly and growth is likely to be far more sedate going forward as the population ages and dependency ratios worsen.”

My Comment: Growth will not happen; the world will nonetheless come to equilibrium when we produce exactly what is necessary not to enrich, but to provide everyone with the necessary goods and services and no more. Nature will destroy everything manufactured in excess of this by any means at its disposal: epidemics, natural disasters, wars. Indeed, the plan of nature is to bring all its parts, including humanity, in balance.

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