Opinion (DeAnne Julius, former CIA analyst, founding member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England): “Look around the world and big risks abound. One or more countries may drop out of the eurozone. Violence may spread across the Middle East. The US Congress may yet drive the country off its fiscal cliff and into recession. An island dispute between China and its neighbours may flare up, provoking the US to intervene in the Pacific. But in my view, the single greatest risk is that one of these events or some other throws the world into another global financial crisis, a ‘GFC II.’
“This is a possibility for three reasons. First, the world economy is still in fragile shape and only slowly recovering from the GFC of 2007-08. … Second, economic policy is maxed out. Both fiscal and monetary policy have hit their effective boundaries. … The third vulnerability is political weakness. Prolonged austerity is undermining political support for mainstream parties and encouraging the fringes, both left and right. The peripheral eurozone countries are at particular risk.”
My Comment: To reduce these risks, wide international cooperation is necessary, but we see how governments are quietly watching the growth of protectionism and fascism in their countries. Only the adoption of a unified educational and training policy in all the G20 countries will bring peace and balance; only this will create the conditions for an understanding of the process of integration and making the right decisions in the new environment.