Global Economy Could Endure Disaster For A Week

Dr. Michael LaitmanIn the News (from Reuters): “The global economy could withstand widespread disruption from a natural disaster or attack by militants for only a week as governments and businesses are not sufficiently prepared to deal with unexpected events, a report by a respected think-tank said.

“Events such as the 2010 volcanic ash cloud, which grounded flights in Europe, Japan’s earthquake and tsunami and Thailand’s floods last year, have showed that key sectors and businesses can be severely affected if disruption to production or transport goes on for more than a week.

“‘One week seems to be the maximum tolerance of the ‘just-in-time’ global economy,’ said the report by Chatham House, the London-based policy institute for international affairs.

“The current fragile state of the world’s economy leaves it particularly vulnerable to unforeseen shocks. Up to 30 percent of developed countries’ gross domestic product could be directly threatened by crises, especially in the manufacturing and tourism sectors, according to the think-tank.

“It is estimated that the 2003 outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) in Asia cost businesses $60 billion, or about 2 percent of east Asian GDP, the report said.

“After the Japanese tsunami and nuclear crisis in March last year, global industrial production declined by 1.1 percent the following month, according to the World Bank.

“The 2010 volcanic ash cloud cost the European Union 5-10 billion euros and pushed some airlines and travel companies to the verge of bankruptcy.

“Costs can escalate quickly when transport or major production hubs are disrupted for more than a few days, which can in turn threaten food and water supplies and energy and communication networks, the report said.

“In the event of prolonged disruption, some businesses would be forced to cut investment and jobs or consider closing down, leading to a permanent reduction in countries’ growth.

“In general, governments and businesses are under-prepared to respond to high-impact, unpredictable events, with worst-case scenarios rarely factored into their contingency plans.

“It particularly highlighted social media networks as a useful ‘one-stop shop’ for information in the event of a crisis. In the London riots last year, social networks such as Twitter proved invaluable for many people to track the rioters’ movements across the UK capital and take precautions.”

My Comment: These examples of universal dependence and fragility in the global interconnection lead us to the need to get close enough to be able to replace each other if necessary.

Related Material:
World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2011 Report
The Development Of The Global Crisis
The Crisis Is Here For Our Own Good!

One Comment

  1. The form of development that will stabilize this is one that promotes cellular independence and robustness. Cells can repair tissues as they are all independent machines.

    If our houses and businesses were in sync or adhesion with the light as well as nature, they could function even if the rest of the world shut down. This is how it is in nature, do trees not still grow even if some burn down?

    We must be very very cautious not to become so unified as to totally lose our ability to function without each other, or a single disruption will shatter the entire glass. Not separated, but not totally unified, balanced, in symbiosis, but with boundaries.

    This is important, this means the future collective state to emerge will be an expansion of this one. Each of us will have our individual life and the common one, like a tree with branches.

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